Israel at War - Day 196
1. Iran Attack on Israel
The week opened with Iran’s overnight, Saturday to Sunday, attack on Israel, during which Iran fired more than 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and attack drones from Iranian territory as well as Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Sirens and missile interception sounds were heard in Israel's north, south, the Jerusalem area and the West Bank.
Following Iran’s warning of an upcoming attack, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq closed their airspaces. All activities in schools and institutions of higher education were cancelled for 48 hours. On Sunday, following the overnight attack, the streets were mostly deserted.
Despite the unprecedented attack, damage to properties and casualties were quite minor, since, according to the IDF, 99% of the missiles and drones were intercepted by Israel’s anti-missile systems, with aid from the U.S, THE UK, France, and Jordan. The Nevatim military base in southern Israel sustained minor damage, and a seven-year-old Bedouin girl from an unrecognized village in southern Israel was seriously wounded by shrapnel. Her condition remains unstable and critical.
A senior Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters news agency that Iran informed Turkey ahead of the attack. The source added that the U.S. sent a message to Iran via Ankara that its operation must be "within certain limits."
Several countries and international institutions, including the U.S, Britain, France, Japan, South Korea, the Ukraine, the European Commission's president, and the UN's secretary general condemned Iran's attack on Israel. Other countries, such as Spain, Saudi Arabia, and China expressed concern over a possible escalation in the Middle East and called for restraint.
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi said that Israel and its allies should "appreciate this responsible and proportionate action” and warned that should Israel retaliate, Iran will respond with a far more massive attack, adding that it will target U.S. bases should Washington back any Israeli response against Iran.
The media reported that President Biden spoke with PM Netanyahu following the Iranian attack and said: “Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks, sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel." Media sources also reported that Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S will not participate in any Israeli counter-offensive against Iran.
2. Israel Retaliates, Following Domestic and International Discussion Over Response to Iranian Attack
Five days after the Iranian attack, Israel retaliated early Friday morning, targeting an Iranian airbase near the city of Isfahan. According to media sources citing Iranian officials, the attack was carried out by small drones. Unnamed Israeli sources said the attack was intended to signal to Iran that Israel is capable of striking targets inside the country, and that it was “carefully calibrated.” Senior Iranian officials told the media that Iran is not planning immediate retaliation,
In the days following the Iranian attack and preceding the Israeli retaliation, the Israeli war cabinet convened to discuss how and when Israel should respond to the attack. This, after the security cabinet authorized PM Netanyahu, Defense Minister Gallant, and Minister Benny Gantz to decide how and when Israel should respond. The main point of controversy was between cabinet members who opted for a more measured response and believed that Israel should leverage its defensive achievements as well as international support to forge an alliance against the Iranian threat, and those who call for a massive Israeli response. Public polls conducted in recent days showed that the majority of Israelis support a more measured approach and place more value on maintaining regional and international alliances over massive retaliation against Iran.
Minister Gantz said that on the night of the attack Iran has “met the power of the Israeli defense system," he added that Israel’s defense capacities were "a strategic achievement that we must leverage for the sake of Israel's security."
Far-right politicians, such as Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel "has to go berserk" in its response in order "to create deterrence in the Middle East." Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that Israel’s response to the Iranian attack should be such that it would teach Iran a lesson “for generations to come.”
World leaders voiced their support for Israel in the aftermath of the attack, but also expressed their concerns over an Israeli military response that will cause an armed escalation in the region. President Biden said he would discuss formulating a unified diplomatic response to the attack with G7 leaders. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to the foreign ministers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, sending a clear message that the U.S intent is to prevent an escalation in the region, alongside its commitment to support Israel's defense.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and U.K. Foreign Minister David Cameron both made brief visits to Israel during the week to meet with senior Israeli officials and urged them to avoid a military response that could cause an escalation in the region. The EU announced that it will impose new sanctions on Iran’s drone and missile programs, in response to its attack on Israel. The U.S Administration also announced new sanctions on Iran’s drone production.
Iran has doubled down on psychological warfare; a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard said that Iran could alter its peaceful “nuclear doctrine” should Israel targets Iranian nuclear sites. The source said that in such a case, Iran "will surely and categorically reciprocate with advanced missiles against their own nuclear sites."
3. Eighteen People Were Wounded, Five of them Seriously, In an Explosion From an Attack Drone Sent By Hizbollah from Lebanon to Northern Israel
A suicide drone explosion in an evacuated village on Israel’s northern border resulted in eighteen wounded, 14 soldiers and 4 civilians. This was a further escalation in the violent conflict between the the Lebanese Muslim Organization, Hizbollah, and Israel. Hizbollah joined the war with Israel on October 7th, in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, but kept their involvement to a relatively small scale. The assessment among Israeli intelligence is that Hizbollah is not interested in a full scale war with Israel. A war would not be popular in Lebanon which suffers from a severe economic crisis for the last few years. On the other hand, Hizbollah, is considered to be an Iranian proxy organization, hence it has an obligation to show solidarity with Hamas in its’ fight against Israel.
Some of the eighteen wounded are soldiers and some are civilians. The drone attacked an evacuated Beduin village in northern Israel. The air raid alarm was not working so there was no warning of the attack and no one was sheltering.
4. Fourteen Year Old Boy From a Settlement in the West Bank Killed in What Looks Like a Terrorist Attack By a Palestinian. Settlers Took Revenge and Set Fires in Two Palestinian Villages
Hundreds of settlers flooded two Palestinian villages in the West Bank, after what seemed to be a terror based murder of a Jewish settler by a Palestinian. The fourteen year old boy went out to herd sheep and didn’t return home. Hours later his body was found in a nearby area. The boy lived in an Israeli outpost in the West Bank. Immediately after the body was found, dozens of settlers rushed to the neighboring Palestinian villages attacking them. In one village they burned down fifteen houses, and torched many cars. They did the same in an adjacent village. IDF soldiers who were present at the event, did not interfere and did not halt the vandalism. Police were not involved as well. The lack of response from Israeli security forces was even more noticeable after an attack in which settlers allegedly murdered two Palestinians.
An Israeli photojournalist was also beaten by settlers while he was documenting their actions. The settlers broke and burned his cameras and all his equipment in order to destroy all documentation of the event and all evidence that may incriminate them. The police were not involved and nobody has been arrested yet.
Since the attack by Hamas on October 7th and the war on Gaza that followed, the tension in the West Bank between Israeli settlers and Palestinians has grown and there is constant escalation on the ground. Unfortunately the IDF is not preventing most of the attacks executed by Israeli settlers.
5. Extensive Coverage of Trump Trial in Israeli Media
Israeli media is intensively covering the trial of former American President, Donald Trump in New York City. The trial in the US is making headlines in Israel and all major media outlets are covering it from the US. The trial is extensively discussed by analysts and commentators in TV and radio studios.
President Trump was considered to be a supportive President for PM Netanyahu and his right-wing government. Unlike President Biden, President Trump did not pressure Israel to return to negotiations with the Palestinians to push for an agreement and did not advance a two state solution like the present administration. The coverage of the trial is directly connected to the race for the White House. An American President, who is personally responsible for American foreign policy, directly affects the relationship between Israel and the US, directly affects Israel’s position in the world in general, and in the Middle East in particular.
A poll published by Israel’s Channel 12 TV station on Tuesday showed that 44% of Israelis would prefer to see Donald Trump win the 2024 election versus 30% who prefer to see Joe Biden re-elected for a second term. This comes after Biden’s show of unprecedented support for and solidarity with Israel after October 7.
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