Israel Defense Force Doubt their Ability to Eliminate Hamas in the Current Phase
The war in Gaza may need an adjustment. It seems that Israel has exhausted its military ability in the Northern Gaza Strip and parts of the south. The army has managed to destroy some of the operational tunnels built by Hamas, and to kill some of the senior operators of the organization, but the army has failed so far to reach the real inner circle of the leaders of Hamas, who are directing the war and who are directly responsible for the planning and the execution of the October 7th attack in southern Israel. An attack that cost the lives of more than 1,200 Israelis, a majority of them civilians, and the abduction of more than 250 hostages to Gaza.
Hamas seniors leaders, mainly its military leader Yehiye Sinwar are still hiding, most probably in one of the tunnels deep inside the southern Gaza Strip. They still have some ability to launch missiles and rockets at Israeli towns and villages.
The high toll in Israeli soldiers lives is becoming troubling, and the fact is that hundreds of thousands of civilians who left their jobs and families and joined the war as reservists is a burden on the economy and on individuals alike. As of Friday, a total of 504 Israeli soldiers have been killed with 168 of them killed during the ground offensive. The fallen include many senior officers and hundreds more are injured, many of them seriously. Israel TV news segments report daily on fallen soldiers, their details, and broadcast the funerals with extracts from eulogies.
In the last few days high ranking officers, including the chief of staff started indicating that Israel needs to move to the next phase of the war, which will mainly be more focused raids executed by well trained commando units, based on good intelligence. On the other hand, PM Netanyahu still announced that Israel should and will eliminate Hamas. The objectives announced when Israel launched the attack on Gaza in October 7th, after the massacre in the south were the elimination of Hamas and the release of all the hostages.
Meanwhile the US is pushing Israel to start ending the war, not later than mid-January 2024.
And the humanitarian crisis is worsening on an hourly basis. There is not enough food, fuel and medical supplies entering Gaza and 50% of the population is said to be on the verge of starvation. Israel allows only small amounts of fuel into the area, since Hamas can use the fuel and confiscate it from the civilians. While Hamas has fuel, it’s forces can last longer in the tunnels and can enforce the extension of the war.
Israel Still Does Not Have a Plan for “The Day After”
More than 80 days into the war, Israel still has not drafted any plan for the day after, when the military phase is over.
PM Netanyahu has stated time and again that he will not tolerate Hamas in Gaza, nor would he allow the PA (Palestinian Authority) to take over, or be part of any plan that would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state. On the other hand he doesn’t say how he sees the Gaza Strip being governed after the military campaign is over.
Parties in PM Netanyahu’s coalition have already announced many times that they think Israel should re-build Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip, in the areas that Israel now controls in the northern Gaza Strip, and even in places that held settlements in the past, before the disengagement nineteen years ago. These are extreme-right political parties which are part of PM Netanyahu’s coalition. Since there is not an agreed upon plan for the day after, many have introduced many differing tentative proposals for the area.
The US is pushing for a stable solution that will eventually lead to a two state solution.
And it is obvious that any plan for the day after must include the release of all the 129 hostages that are still in Gaza under Hamas. Some of them alive and some are dead, some are civilians and some are soldiers, some are young and some are elderly. The exact status, condition and location of the hostages remains unknown with no outside parties given access to visit them,
Escalation on the Northern Border Between Israel and Lebanon
Hizbollah, which is considered a terrorist organization, operates from Lebanon, has intensified its pressure on the northern border with Israel. Hizbollah operators are launching missiles towards Israeli villages and agricultural farms and fields, causing serious damage to communities and infrastructure all over the northern area bordering Lebanon.
All the Israeli towns and villages on the border with Lebanon were evacuated on October 16th, when Hizbollah started assaulting areas on the border with Israel. Those Kibbutzim and other communities are mainly agricultural settlements. Many have lost their fruit harvests, and suffer extensive loss of income. Some have farm animals, poultry, goats and milk cows that need to be fed and taken care of. The farmers can hardly care for the animals and many times missiles have hit cowsheds or chicken coops. There are times at which civilians and civilian vehicles are being targeted with antitank missiles.
On the one hand Israel has not formally declared war between Israel and Hizbollah, on the other hand, this situation cannot continue for long. All the displaced communities are dispersed around the country, many have lived in hotels since mid-October with no target date to return to their towns and villages.
In addition this takes a heavy psychological and economic toll on people and on the state.
Senior Official in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Killed in Alleged Israeli Airstrike in Syria
Brig. Gen. Razi Mousavi, a senior advisor in Iran’s IRGK was killed in an airstrike in Damascus, Syris, earlier this week. Mousavi, according to Iranian sources, was responsible for coordinating the military alliance between Iran and Syria.
In a statement, Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi blamed Israel for the airstrike and vowed that Israel “will certainly pay for this crime.” IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagar said, in a late-night press conference that while he will not comment on foreign reports, "the Israeli military obviously has a job to protect the security interests of Israel."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Likened PM Netanyahu to Hitler. Netanyahu: "Erdogan is committing a genocide of the Kurds."
Turkey’s President Erdogan and PM Netanyahu exchanged accusations and sharp words earlier this week, after Erdogan compared Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler while commenting on Israel’s attacks in Gaza. In a televised speech, Erdogan said: ‘‘Is what Netanyahu is doing any less than Hitler? It is not.”
PM Netanyahu, in response, spoke of Erdogan’s genocide of the Kurds, Turkey’s large ethnic minority, and said that Erdogan “is the last person who can preach morality to us”. Netanyahu also condemned Erdogan’s support of Hamas, following its attack on Israel on October 7th.
Draft of Supreme Court Ruling Against the Cancellation of the Reasonableness Clause Leaked
Channel 12 news, in a breaking news broadcast, unveiled a draft of the supreme court fifteen judge panel’s decision to overturn the law stipulating the cancellation of the reasonableness clause. According to a senior Channel 12 correspondent, the panel was divided: with 8 justices in favor of the overruling and 7 against.
The reasonableness clause refers to a balance between political and public interests in decision-making. An "unreasonable" decision is one that "disproportionately focuses on political interests without sufficient consideration for public trust and its protection." It requires that government actions be reasonable and proportionate. It has served as a benchmark for legal evaluation, judicial review and possible nullification of government decisions, regulations and legislation.
The court’s decision, scheduled to be published in two weeks, is a dramatic development, since it will be the first time that the supreme court has overruled a basic law, approved by the Knesset. Those in favor of the decision, like former chief justice Esther Hayut, wrote in their comments that the cancelation of the clause will severely limit the courts’ ability to protect citizens from arbitrary administrative policies. The justices who voted against the decision, mostly of the conservative wing of the bench, wrote that the supreme court should not overturn laws enacted by the Knesset.
Channel 12 also cited unnamed sources from within the supreme court who criticized former chief justice Hayut for pressing for a tight deadline for the publication of the decision, so that it would take effect on the last day in which a retired chief justice can deliver a court ruling.
An Haaretz senior commentator wrote that the leak of the draft ruling is the first step in a toxic campaign against the supreme court, as part of the government’s judicial overhaul initiative.
Multiple appeals were filed in September 2023 before the full panel of all fifteen Supreme Court justices. The appeals argued that the law violates the balance of power between authorities and undermines democracy. The appeals arguments were supported by the states’ attorney general.
And before we say goodbye, we wish our followers and readers a happy new year. May 2024 bring hope for better days, peace and prosperity.
Further Reading:
The War On Gaza: Here, here, here, here
The Day After: Here, here, here
Northern Border: Here, here, here
Irany official: Here, here, here