Day 98 of the Israel-Hamas Gaza war
1. Secretary of State in a Fifth Visit to Israel Since October 7th
US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken made his fifth visit to Israel since October 7th, as part of a series of meetings all over the Middle East, in an effort to find a solution to the current conflict, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and a sustainable solution to the ongoing violent conflict.
Meanwhile the US administration is not pressuring Israel to agree to a ceasefire, although the administration is trying to find a mechanism for Israel to allow Palestinians in Gaza to return to their homes in the Northern Gaza Strip.
When Israel launched the ground operation, it called on all civilians from the north to move to the south in order to avoid as many civilian casualties as possible. Hundreds of thousands of people moved to the south, which became overpopulated. This created a humanitarian crisis which resulted from a constant lack of medicine, food, fuel, drinking water and shelter. According to assessments 70% of the houses in the northern part of the Gaza Strip are not habitable after being severely damaged by missiles, shelling and bombing.
According to an Israel Defense Force spokesperson, Israel still needs months to achieve the objectives of the war, which were to destroy Hamas and free the hostages. An IDF spokesperson announced that the war in Gaza will continue through 2024.
Later Secretary Blinken traveled to Ramallah to meet Palestinian President Abbas. In his concluding remarks, Secretary Blinken expressed the US vision of a two state solution. He also mentioned the wish of the US that when the war in Gaza is over, and when Hamas loses its power and will no longer govern the area, Israel will withdraw from the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Authority will be in charge, and will be part of the new phase and rehabilitation.
2. Still No Deal to Release the Israeli Hostages
In the last few days more and more testimonies and stories of hostages who were held by Hamas and released have surfaced, describing the horrific conditions of their captivity. Released hostages say that women are being severely harassed sexually, including ongoing rape. They expressed deep concerns that some of them, the elderly and others who have chronic diseases, are not getting their medications and this may threaten their lives.
Families of 40 hostages gathered on the border between Israel and Gaza equipped with megaphones used to shout words of hope to the hostages held in Gaza, hoping they can hear the encouragement and support expressed. Later this week a new hope evolved as reports of a new deal started to spread. According to the deal all hostages will be released, in exchange all Palestinian prisoners held in Israel will be released, and all senior leaders will leave Gaza forever for a third country. This was not yet confirmed, but it is already giving hope to the families desperate to have the hostages returned home.
There are 136 Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza, 24 of them are bodies of the deceased.
If women were raped in captivity and if any of them fall pregnant due to the rape, time is a crucial factor, so they can have the option of an abortion.
Hamas insists on a complete and permanent ceasefire before it will enter negotiations. All efforts by international or local players have still not resulted in a breakthrough. Military and political senior leaders believe that if Israel pushes hard enough, Hamas may feel a direct threat and agree to a deal, or Israeli military forces would be able to find the hostages via intelligence analysis. Israel believes that the hostages are being held underground in the southern part of Gaza, that is still controlled by Hamas.
3. International Court of Justice Hearing on South Africa's Genocide Charge Concludes. Court Yet to Issue Ruling
The hearing, held in the ICJ in The Hague, lasted two days. On the first day of the hearing, South Africa's legal team presented their opening arguments, accusing Israel of genocidal acts, intent and incitement, citing harsh public statements by senior Israeli officials including PM Netanyahu, members of his government and IDF troops. The prosecution team also noted: "No matter how monstrous or appalling an attack or provocation, genocide is never a permitted response", and requested an order for an immediate cease-fire. Turkey’s Erdogen told the media that his country is providing the ICJ with documents, postly visuals, in support of the charges of genocide.
Professor Malcolm Shaw, a renowned British legal expert, and lecturer on international law, is leading Israel’s defense team. Representing Israel on the panel of 17 judges hearing the petition is former chief justice Aharon Barak, an internationally respected jurist, and until recently the target of bashing by judicial overhaul supporters, for being the figure most associated with the supreme court’s judicial activism.
On the second and final day of the hearing the Israeli defense team called on the court to reject the case as ‘libel’ and that the ICJ should explore war cabinet decisions, rather then statements made by people not in decision making positions. The defense also stated that the request for cease-fire undermines Israel’s right and capacity to defend itself. Family members of hostages held by Hamas attended the hearings, and some addressed the pro-Israel crowd that gathered outside the court building.
The ICJ announced that it will issue a ruling as soon as possible.
4. Tension With Hizbollah is Growing
In the last few days Israel managed to attack and kill senior Hizbollah operators in southern Lebanon. On the other hand Hizbollah managed to severely damage two Israeli military bases in northern Israel and continues to launch missiles towards villages and towns inside Israel. Many of these places were evacuated months ago, and the houses are empty, but the destruction continues, and the farmers are unable to harvest and cultivate their fields and orchards.
There is an international effort to reach an agreed-upon deal, according to which Hizbollah forces and operators will withdraw north to a safe distance from the border with Israel and will no longer be a direct and immediate threat to the communities in Israel living and working close to the border with Lebanon.
In 2006, after the war between Israel and Lebanon, the UNSC approved resolution 1701, which set the terms for the ceasefire. According to the resolution, Hizbollah operators and forces are not allowed South of the Litani River, which at its closest is about 4Km (2.5 miles) from the border with Israel. This was violated by Hizbollah. Israel insists on holding them accountable. Hizbollah came into existence in 1985 as a violent response to the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon which began in 1982 and lasted until 2000. A total of 256 Israeli soldiers died in combat in South Lebanon during the occupation.
5. 98 Days into War in Gaza, Netanyahu Sinks in Polls, Gantz Soars
A recent poll by the public broadcast news channel Kan 11 shows a continuation of a trend since October 7th and the war in Gaza, with Netanyahu’s Likud party sinking, and Gantz’ National Unity gaining traction in public opinion polls.
According to the poll, if elections were to be held this week, National Unity would receive 33 seats, rising from its current 12 seats, while Likud would get 20, dropping from its current 32 out of the total 120 seats in the Knesset.
Another party negatively affected by current events is Lapid’s Yesh Atid which, according to the poll would receive 14 seats, as compared with its current 24. The combined Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit slate would get 12, a slight drop from its current 14. However, previous polls have shown an increase in popularity for Ben Gvir, head of Otzma Yehudit (the extremist right wing Jewish Power party), and a decrease in support for finance minister Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party.