Israel at War - Day 650 of the Gaza War
1. Coalition Crisis: Haredim Bolt Over Conscription Law
A political crisis ensues as PM Netanyahu’s government takes another turn towards dismantling the coalition.
Due to the deadlock created by attempts to draft the new conscription law that would exempt Haredi Yeshiva students from the mandatory military draft, the ultra-orthodox Haredi parties decided to resign from the government. This may result, further down the road, in the dismantling of the entire coalition. The political agreement with the Haredi parties, that enabled the establishment of the current coalition, had a clause that would enable the Haredi coalition partners to legally gain exemption from the military draft for their constituents. That did not happen, firstly because the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and Syria placed extraordinary demands on the army and it needed more soldiers to meet all the requirements placed on it. Tens of thousands of Haredi boys could have helped meet those demands. The members of the National Zionist community, who are also members of the coalition, are paying a high price in human lives, and leaving their lives, families, children and businesses behind to serve hundreds of days a year in the reserves. They are furious at the Haredim and are no longer willing to pay the price alone. This is why there was no way to square the circle. But the coalition is not falling apart, since the Haredim have decided not to vote against the government yet. It is important to say here that the decision makers of the Haredi parties are not the political leaders, but actually the Rabbinical forum.
PM Netanyahu is investing a lot of his time and efforts to try to solve the crisis. Political analysts say that he wants his coalition to survive till the end of the current Knesset session next week. Then the Knesset recesses and adjourns until after the Jewish holidays in late September. When the Knesset starts its’ winter session, things may look different, plus he will have a few more months to prepare for elections.
Public opinion polls still show weakness on the current coalition side and PM Netanyahu doesn’t want to go to elections when he is He is politically weak. In addition to military achievements with Iran and Lebanon, he may want to have more military or geostrategic successes. Therefore he may look to close a deal for the release of all the 50 hostages that are still held in Gaza.
2. Attacks in Syria: Thousands of Israeli Druze Cross the Border
Israel Air Force fighter jets launched an intensive attack on Syrian targets, including the capital Damascus. The immediate reason for the attack is what appears to be a massacre of the Druze minority in Syria. At the same time, hundreds of Druze from Israel breached the border fence and rushed into Syria to help their community.
Background: There is a small minority community of Druze in Israel, of around 150,000 people, many of whom live in the Golan Heights of which about 20% hold Israeli citizenship. There are small Druze minority communities in Syria and in Lebanon, they are all connected and many have family ties. The Druze see themselves as part of the country that they live in and they are loyal to their country of residence. At the same time they have strong ties with their fellow communities across the borders. The attack on the Druze community in Syria started a few days ago. Reports of rapes of small girls and murders of members of the community reached the community in Israel. The leaders of the Druze asked the Israeli government to intervene, help their brothers and give them protection. But it took a few days until that happened, and the attack expanded, until they said they could not stay behind and needed to cross the border to help their families and brothers across the conflict lines. The leaders of the Druze community in Israel are angry at the Israeli government that did not interfere in time to save their families in Syria.
Ahmed al Sharaa, the new leader in Syria (former known as al Goulani, who separated from ISIS), occupied Syria and ousted the former President Bashar al Assad. The international community embraced him. President Trump met him on his trip to the Middle East, and Trump also lifted all sanctions on Syria. A few weeks ago there were reports that Israel is conducting talks with the new regime in Syria, but that was not formally confirmed. Meanwhile Israeli forces took control over some territory on the border with Syria, and launched multiple air strikes on Syrian targets. Early Thursday morning, there were reports of a ceasefire in Syria.
The incident with the Druze may show that Al Shara has not completely changed his character and that he has not really chosen the diplomatic way over the military. Israeli officials are taking extra care towards the new Syrian regime.
3. NYT Investigative Article Claims Netanyahu Prioritizes Political Gains Over Public Interests
Earlier this week, the New York Times published a comprehensive investigative article titled "How Netanyahu Prolonged the War in Gaza to Stay in Power." The report, based on over 110 interviews with Israeli, American, and Arab officials, as well as internal documents, paints a disturbing picture of a leader prioritizing his own political survival over national interests.
More specifically, the authors of the article take a deeper dive into cases where PM Netanyahu rejected ceasefire/hostage release deals, obstructed the progress of Saudi normalisation, prioritised political calculations over military advice and the stability of his government coalition, while dismissing public sentiment and opinion, specifically on the issue of a full-fledged hostage deal in return for ending the war in Gaza.
On the issue of ceasefire deals, the article claims that Netanyahu, at crucial junctures, "slowed down cease-fire negotiations," even scuttling a deal in April 2024 that would have secured the release of over 30 hostages, reportedly due to threats from far-right coalition partners like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to bring down the government.
On the Saudi normalization issue, the report alleges that Netanyahu derailed a former U.S. president Joe Biden’s effort to secure an Israeli-Saudi normalization deal, which was conditioned on ending the Gaza war, again, due to opposition from figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.
NYT also suggests that Netanyahu pressed ahead with military operations, specifically in April and July 2024, despite top generals reportedly advising that there was "no further military advantage to continuing." It also states that Netanyahu dismissed intelligence assessments prior to October 7, 2023, that warned of adversaries viewing Israel's internal turmoil as an opportunity to strike, reportedly telling the former Shin Bet chief to "Deal with the protesters."
In prioritizing coalition stability and seeking to keep his ultra-right wing nationalist coalition partners, PM Netanyahu dismissed growing public sentiment which supports a full-fledged hostage deal in return for ending the war in Gaza. In a conversation with former president Biden who cited that over 50% of Israelis supported a hostage deal over continued war, Netanyahu reportedly responded, "Not 50 per cent of my voters."
In response to the publication of the article’s findings in Israeli media, the PM office issued a sharp rebuttal, discrediting the report for being politically motivated. The official statement claimed that the article "defames Israel, its brave people and soldiers, and its Prime Minister," and praised Netanyahu's leadership for "one of the greatest military comebacks in history" against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. Netanyahu himself also published a video criticizing the media for spreading "Hamas propaganda" and dismissing polls supporting a hostage deal as “manipulative and manufactured
4. Further Escalation in Settler Violence in West Bank: Two Palestinian Men Killed
Tensions in the occupied West Bank continue to escalate, following the killing of two Palestinian men, including a Palestinian American citizen, in an attack attributed to armed Israeli settlers. The incident, which occurred last weekend in the town of Sinjil, northeast of Ramallah, has drawn strong condemnation and calls for accountability from both Palestinian and American officials.
According to Palestinian health officials and eyewitness accounts, 20-year-old Sayfollah "Saif" Mussallet, a dual US citizen, was brutally beaten to death by a group of Israeli settlers. The other victim, 23-year-old Mohammad al-Shalabi, died after being shot in the chest during the same attack. The men were reportedly on family farmland in Sinjil, an area that has recently seen an increase in settler violence.
Eyewitness and family members told the media that a mob of settlers surrounded Sayfollah, beating him for hours and reportedly preventing ambulances and paramedics from reaching him to provide life-saving aid. His younger brother eventually carried him to an ambulance, but he died before reaching the hospital. Mohammad al-Shalabi was also left bleeding for hours before his body was found.
The Israeli military has stated that stones were thrown at Israelis near Sinjil and "a violent confrontation developed in the area," adding that security forces are investigating the reports of casualties. However, Musallet's family and witnesses have rejected the claim that the violence began with Palestinian rock-throwing.
Settler violence has become part of the daily routine in the West Bank and has exacerbated since the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel. Yet, this incident drew local and international media attention because one of the victims was an American citizen.
Mike Huckabee, the U.S. Ambassador to Israel, publicly condemned the killing. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), he stated that he had "asked Israel to aggressively investigate the murder of Saif Mussallet, an American citizen... There must be accountability for this criminal and terrorist act. Saif was just 20 yrs old."
Several members of Congress, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, have called for a thorough investigation. Jeffries described Musallet's killing as "shocking and appalling" and urged the Israeli government to hold those responsible accountable.
5. Government Determined to Oust Attorney General After Decision to Indict PM’s Close Advisor
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara is facing an intensified push for her dismissal by the Israeli government. Meanwhile, Baharav-Miara's office is moving to indict Yonatan Urich, a key advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for allegedly leaking sensitive military documents.
Efforts to oust the attorney general have been ongoing for several weeks. The coalition has established a ministerial committee to bypass the authority of the professional committee for senior government officials. The ministerial committee held two hearings this week regarding Baharav-Miara's continued tenure, in her absence. Baharav-Miara has consistently maintained that the new dismissal process, which bypasses the previously established professional committee for such matters, is "illegal," "a sham hearing with a predetermined outcome," and "a severe blow to the rule of law."
Despite her absence, the committee, chaired by Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli and including other senior ministers, proceeded with its deliberations. They cited "fundamental and ongoing disagreements," "lack of effective cooperation," "delays and deficiencies in executing tasks," and "adversarial and disrespectful conduct" as reasons for their recommendation.
The committee's decision is now set to be presented to the full cabinet, likely for a vote early next week. If the cabinet approves the recommendation, it is widely anticipated that Baharav-Miara and other legal and civil society groups will challenge the decision in the High Court of Justice, potentially triggering a constitutional crisis over the independence of Israel's legal institutions.
Attorney General Baharav-Miara's office announced earlier this week its intention to indict Yonatan Urich, a close and long-time advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu, pending a hearing. Urich faces serious charges related to allegations that he, along with another former aide, Eli Feldstein, unlawfully obtained and leaked highly sensitive military intelligence documents to the German news site Bild.
The State Attorney's Office intends to charge Urich with transmitting classified information with the intent to harm state security, possession of classified information, and destroying evidence. The indictment alleges that Urich and Feldstein illegally accessed a “top secret” document detailing Hamas’s negotiation stance on hostages and a ceasefire. This leak occurred in August 2024, just days after six Israeli hostages were found murdered in a Hamas tunnel in Rafah. Prosecutors contend that the leak was designed "to influence public opinion regarding the prime minister, and to shift the discourse at the time regarding the murder of the six hostages." Prime Minister Netanyahu vehemently defended Urich, calling Baharav-Miara's decision "disgraceful" and "baseless," asserting that Urich "did not harm national security." Urich's attorneys have also denied the allegations, labeling them "absurd" and "suspiciously timed”.
Yonatan Urich is also a central figure in the ongoing "Qatargate" affair, an investigation into suspicions that individuals close to Prime Minister Netanyahu received payments from Qatar to promote its interests in Israel.